Before It's Too Late: The West Must Prepare for Iran's Next Crisis

Every military commander knows that hope is not a plan. Success depends on anticipating threats and developing contingencies before the first shot is fired. The United States and its allies must apply the same principle to the threat posed by Iran’s clerical regime. Failing to do so would be a strategic dereliction of duty. A contingency plan for confronting and ultimately neutralizing that threat is not only wise—it is an imperative.

Nevertheless, Araqchi and his colleagues now claim to have replenished and expanded those capabilities. Some officials have even welcomed the prospect of renewed conflict. Their bravado is hollow, but it reveals a defiant posture and a dangerous intent to continue projecting force across the region.

For policymakers, this calls for clarity and resolve. Washington and its allies must abandon the illusion that diplomacy alone can alter the behavior of a regime whose survival depends on violence.

The United States and its allies face a binary choice: prepare for the next inevitable conflict or help the Iranian people ensure that conflict never comes—by supporting the regime’s overthrow from within. The latter course is not about foreign intervention or war; it is about aligning policy with reality. The Iranian people themselves have proven willing to bear the cost of freedom, provided they are not betrayed by Western hesitation.

The 2022 uprising—the most widespread since 1979—demonstrated the regime’s vulnerability and the population’s determination. Yet Western capitals responded with passivity. Instead of empowering the people of Iran, they empowered the regime, which responded with mass executions, repression, and the very belligerence that led to the June war.

The consequences of that failure are still unfolding. Today, the regime has issued death sentences against 17 members of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK)—the main constituent of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). This campaign of terror is designed to crush dissent at home even as the mullahs lash out abroad. The message could not be clearer: Tehran fears its own people far more than it fears any foreign adversary.

On November 15, Iranian-American communities will convene in Washington, D.C., for the first Free Iran Convention. The gathering will bring together more than a thousand activists, scholars, and community leaders to outline a realistic vision for a democratic transition. It will also spotlight Maryam Rajavi’s Ten-Point Plan, which pledges free elections, gender equality, religious freedom, peaceful foreign relations, and a non-nuclear Iran. That framework offers what no military campaign can: a durable end to Tehran’s cycle of aggression.

As someone who has spent a lifetime in uniform, I know the value of preparedness. We plan not because war is inevitable, but because peace depends on it. Today, the West must prepare—not for another endless conflict in the Middle East, but for the decisive political change that can prevent one. The Iranian people have shown both courage and capability. What they need now is the assurance that the free world stands with them, not with their oppressors. That is what makes the November 15 convention unique and an important event that deserves proper attention from policymakers in Washington and other Western capitals. 

Tehran’s weakness is exposed. The question is whether we have the strategic foresight to act before that weakness once again explodes into war.

Gen. Charles Wald, USAF (ret.), served as the deputy commander of U.S. European Command.